October 21, 2008
The Market Giveth, The Market Taketh Away
It was forecasted, but that doesn't make it feel much better.
The gains I picked up on SPY by the end of the day yesterday pretty much evaporated by the open today. There was a fairly large gap down on the open and it did not recover enough for me to put in a trailing stop that made sense. However, the market seems to be going in the trend of the forecast, just a bit earlier than expected.
I'm holding on to the SPY position until the end of the week at least, as the forecast is for the S&P to close positive for the week. I'm only trading one contract in this trial so I don't want a sizable part of what I gain to go to the brokerage in the form of commissions.
If there was a larger position in play you could use this tool to play of the interday highs and lows with some degree of confidence.
The other trade I entered into yesterday with VPHM is turning out pretty well so far. I purchased the February options at the $12.50 strike price for $2.50 ($250 per contract). VPHM was trading at $11.46.
As of right now, VPHM is at $12.12 and the options have gone up 10.4% to $2.79. The trend is still looking up, so I'll wait until after the stock reaches $12.50 (my in-the-money strike price) to put in my trailing stop.
I also put in a trade for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). I bought "put" options on this one because with both the trend for this stock going consistently down, and a lot of evidence that people are eating out less, it's likely that business will not be picking up soon for gourmet burritos.
Which is too bad.
I'm a fan of the Garmin-Chipotle bike racing team and I want to see the company do well. I've only been able to eat there a couple of times, but I really enjoyed it. The closest we have to that were I live is Taco Del Mar, which is not publicly traded.
I'll be sure to take the family to Chipotle next time we're near one and spend some of the money I made from their company on a meal.
And on the family front, my wife is on call this week so it's going to be plenty of one-on-one time with the kiddo and I. Plenty of volatility at home and the stock market.
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