It appears as though Chipotle (CMG) and Panera (PNRA) may finally be heading my direction. A few weeks back I made the assertion that People would not pay extra for gourmet burritos and sandwiches, no matter how tasty they are. At first the markets seemed to disagree with me as those two stocks started going up almost as soon as I placed my positions.
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In hindsight it seems I made a pretty good call on the bottoms for two restaurant stocks: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Panera Bread Company (PNRA).
With Chipotle I bought a "put" position just a few days before the stock really began to rally. It stated going up on news that they were raising prices and buying back $100 million worth of stock. To me it seemed that the economic factors would override those moves so I stayed with my put position.
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For the purposes of practicality, I should be doing much of my trading on paper in a virtual account. And I've done that, but I don't stay focused on it and if I make a big win I feel like a dolt for not doing it for real.
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It was forecasted, but that doesn't make it feel much better.
The gains I picked up on SPY by the end of the day yesterday pretty much evaporated by the open today. There was a fairly large gap down on the open and it did not recover enough for me to put in a trailing stop that made sense. However, the market seems to be going in the trend of the forecast, just a bit earlier than expected.
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Over the weekend I signed up for a trial of a service that is supposed to forecast movements in the main broad indexes like the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500.
The is my first day of trying out the service. I bought SPY options (SPY DEC 95) this morning when that ETF was at $95.33. It closed today at $98.81 for an increase of 3.52%. My options, on the other hand, increased by 9.57%.
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When I started learning how to trade options in August of this year, I happened across a stock that seemed to fit my criteria for making a trade. This stock was VAR and it met the criteria I had learned for being "overbought" as well as some other criteria that would lead me to believe that the stock would begin decreasing in value.
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The other day I came across a very cool blog called "Ryan Thomas: Baby Trader" that is written from the perspective of a toddler trading in the stock market. The kid knows what he's doing!
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Over the weekend I took a look at some securities that I would like to do some credit spreads on. This is a trade strategy where you sell an option that is near the money while you buy an option that is further out of the money. You get to collect the difference when the options expire.
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Did you know that you can quantitatively measure fear? In the stock market, volatility and uncertainty is often referred to as "fear" and is measured by an index called the VIX.
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It seems like as soon as people find out you're involved in the stock market they want to start giving you advice. Uncle Marty has an "inside scoop" or Aunt Matilda has owned a single stock since 1938 so she says that's the way to go.
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